The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), in research funded by the Low Pay Commission, has published a new study examining the impact of recent minimum wage increases on employment.
The report finds no evidence that increases in the minimum wage led to job losses among minimum wage workers, directly challenging long-standing claims that raising pay would negatively affect employment levels.
The findings come at a critical time, as debate continues around Ireland’s pathway toward a living wage and the adequacy of protections for low-paid and younger workers. Responding to the report, the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) has welcomed the conclusions and called for them to inform future policy decisions.
“We welcome this report from the ESRI and Low Pay Commission, which finds no evidence that recent minimum wage increases increased the likelihood of minimum wage employees losing their jobs. This is an important and timely piece of research that should inform future policy decisions on low pay.
“It is clear that the fear-mongering from employers in relation to an increase in the minimum wage is unfounded. In this context, last year’s decision by the Government to kick out the timeline for moving the minimum wage to a 60% living wage is even more unacceptable/ unjustifiable. This is not the first time such warnings have proven to be without basis, and workers should not have their pay held back on the strength of baseless claims.
“It also clear that sub-minimum wage rates of pay for younger workers have had their day. It is grossly unfair to those workers who are doing work of equal value to receive lower pay purely due to their age and to good employers who are put at a competitive disadvantage. Maintaining sub-minimum youth rates also puts the Government in breach of the EU Adequate Minimum Wage Directive.
“In the current economic uncertainty, with inflation increasing, vulnerable workers deserve certainty and security. Trade unions will reflect this in upcoming negotiations, and in forthcoming engagement with the Low Pay Commission on the appropriate minimum wage rate for 2027.”
What This Means
This research adds to a growing body of evidence undermining claims that raising the minimum wage harms employment. Instead, it strengthens the case for:
- A faster transition to a living wage
- The abolition of sub-minimum youth rates
- Greater certainty and protection for low-paid workers
For unions, the findings provide important evidence ahead of upcoming discussions on minimum wage rates and broader low-pay policy.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/0331/1565974-esri-minimum-wage/
